John McCain dropped over 100,000 pieces of direct mail in Iowa, ran at least four television ads and mailings in New Hampshire, and had a “substantial” (their campaign’s description) effort and mailing in South Carolina — only to see his negative momentum in all three states continue to drag his polling numbers lower. New Hampshire is the only state he’s come close to stopping the bleeding in, where he’s leveled off at around 15% and third place. In Iowa, he pulls around 6% for a fifth place spot, and he’s in 4th place with around 12% in South Carolina. Now rumors are swirling that he will skip Iowa altogether, a la his 2000 campaign.
Fred is down to 13% in Rasmussen after enjoying a bounce up to 28% following his announcement. He was the one who was supposed to give Romney a run for his money in Iowa, but he’s sitting in fourth place in the state with downward momentum. In New Hampshire, he’s actually in sixth place behind everybody except Tancredo and Hunter. In Florida, where he was supposed to challenge Rudy’s firewall, he’s dropped from 22% average to an 11% average and third place behind Romney. South Carolina is the only state where he is relatively strong, and even there he’s bunched in a three way tie with Rudy and Romney with downward momentum threatening to pull him farther down. Does anyone really think he’ll still be in the hunt in SC if he loses IA and NH so badly?
Huckabee’s recent surge in Iowa has certainly been surprising and quick. Huck has cut Romney lead from double digits down to 9% on average. He’s currently fifth place in New Hampshire, sixth in Nevada, fifth in South Carolina, fifth in Michigan, and fifth in Florida. Not exactly a position of strength with only 43 days before the primaries begin.
Romney has the second clearest path to the nomination at this point. He’s still first in Iowa by 9 points, first in New Hampshire by more than 10, and is now first place, or tied for first, in three different South Carolina polls. Additionally, he’s in second place in Nevada, Florida, and (by less than 1%) in Michigan.
Giuliani still has the clearest path to the nomination, despite not playing well in some of the early states. The benefit to Rudy of it becoming basically a two-man race (thanks to Thompson’s fall and despite McCain’s best efforts) is that Giuliani will place at least second in each early state (with the potential exception of Iowa because of the Huckabee surge). This means he will still carry some relative strength into the 2/5 primaries, even if he were to lose all six of the early states. Or, if he maintains his lead in Nevada or Michigan, he enters 2/5 with even less diminished strength.
http://race42008.com/2007/11/21/thanksgiving-thoughts/ Matt C 11-21-2007